A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
